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Recent, Current, and Pending Research Projects
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Some projects, especially those without
graduate students, are listed only on the
Conservation Activities page.
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GIS analysts Dan Majka, Jeff Jenness,
and I have developed an ArcGIS toolbox (CorridorDesigner) and a toolbar of
Corridor Evaluation Tools that allows anyone to design wildlife corridors
using the procedures underlying our 16 Arizona designs. It’s free at
corridordesign.org, complete
with tutorial, pdfs of powerpoint presentations (we are working on Flash
versions), and species models for some southwestern species.
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Plague
dynamics in prairie dog colonies (Megan
Friggens PhD project, in collaboration with Dr
Robert Parmenter of
Valles
Caldera National Preserve). Since plague first entered the US in 1900, the
disease has decimated Gunnison prairie dog towns and is a factor that may lead
to listing of the species under ESA. To test the hypotheses that plague
outbreaks in Gunnison prairie dog colonies are driven by increased dispersal
of small mammals, and that these dispersal events are density-dependent and
driven by dry-wet climate cycles, we are studying the prevalence of plague and
host-changing behavior of fleas, in relation to rodent population changes,
climate, and habitat.

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Bird predation, forest insects, and growth of cottonwood
(Bill Bridgeland PhD project). Our objectives are to (a) test the
hypothesis that insectivorous birds increase the growth of cottonwood trees by reducing the numbers of phytophagous
insects, (b)
determine what factors influence the relationships among avian predators, insects, and tree
growth . The project is motivated by
surprising lack of empirical data on these issues. Appeals to conserve forest
birds because they are important to forest health should be based on the
documented role of birds in forest ecosystem processes, such as their
potential role as insect predators and regulators of tree herbivory and
growth.
This research provides greater understanding of biotic interactions in
forest ecosystems as well as addressing an important conservation and forest
health issue for an important southwestern forest type.
This
project is generously supported by the
National Science Foundation.
ESKIMO BLUE DAY
from the Jefferson Airplane album Volunteers (1969).
Music by Grace Slick, Lyrics by Paul Kantner & Grace Slick; Second verse by
Paul Beier (2002)
Snow cuts loose from the frozen
Until it joins with the African sea
In moving it changes its cold and its name
The reason I come and go is the same
Animal game for me
You call it rain
But the human name
Doesn't mean shit to a tree
Birds fly through the forest
Eating millions of arthropods
“Without birds the bugs would soon kill the
trees
That’s why we must conserve them please!”
But is this really true?
If the birds went away
What would the trees say?
Do birds mean shit to a tree?
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Population genetics, occupancy
modeling, and habitat modeling of grizzly bears in Montana (Tabitha
Graves PhD project).
I am using genetic data to link habitat use and
connectivity to animal abundance. The
Northern Divide Grizzly Bear (NDGB) Project
was initiated to estimate the number of grizzly bears in the 8-million-acre
Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) in northwestern Montana. We
collected 33,000 hair samples in 2004 from hair snares and rub trees. This
yielded genotypes for 545 individual grizzly
bears, creating a genetic spatial and temporal record of individual
animals. I am using these data to answer several questions: Why are there
many bears in some parts of the ecosystem and few bears in others? Can we
use the relatedness of individuals to identify places that are less
permeable to bear movement? How can we include spatial autocorrelation in
models of the number of bears in a local area? What is the best approach for
incorporating multiple scales of habitat selection into models of the number
of bears using an area? How can we use multiple data sources (genetic,
telemetry, sightings) to estimate the number of bears? I will use a
hierarchical Bayesian framework and simulations to model the way animal
movement, habitat use, and sampling methods influence animal abundance in an
area. This work is
supported by
the National Science Foundation (Rigorous estimates of landscape resistance
to gene flow; 2009-2011), an NSF IGERT fellowship (2007-2009), NAU School of Forestry, USGS, and partners of the NDGB Project.
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Modeling corridors for a changing climate

(Brian Brost MS project).
I am developing a new approach to design wildlife linkages more robust to
climate change. Most corridor designs are based on current distribution of
vegetation communities, which will soon change due to climate change.
My new method will use elevation, slope, aspect, and landform as surrogates
for vegetation in linkage design. The rationale is that future vegetation
communities will be determined by topography, temperature,
precipitation, and soils. By maximizing continuity of elevation, slope,
aspect, and landform elements, a linkage design should also maximize
continuity of vegetation communities in a changing climate. For several
complex landscapes in Arizona, I will compare my topographic linkage designs
to existing focal-species designs based on current vegetation. This new
approach can be used as an adjunct to current approaches to make linkage
designs more robust to climate change. The approach may be most useful in
much of the developing world - where digital elevation data are available
but maps of vegetation lacking. This work is funded by the McIntire-Stennis
program, Arizona Board of Forestry, and the US Forest Service Climate Change
Initiative..
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Impact of uncertainty on least-cost corridor analyses.
Shawn
Newell MS project. Least cost corridor analysis (LCCA) is an
increasingly popular tool in planning wildland networks. For instance, the
South Coast Missing Linkages project is
using it to prioritize parcels for
connectivity between 15 major pairs of wildlands in southern California. LCCA
produces a map predicting the least cost corridors for each of several focal
species, and a combined map of a design that serves all species. Each map is a
single estimate of the species LCC, that depends on the structure of the model
and estimates of animal response to habitat factors. Our objectives are to
estimate sensitivity of the predicted LCC for a species to uncertainty about
the species’ habitat preferences and to different model structures. We will
also determine if using multiple focal species produces a linkage design that
is robust to uncertainty in the maps for the individual species.
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The role of small aspen patches in the population dynamics of
insectivorous birds in ponderosa pine forests (Jill Clifton PhD
project). We think that aspen stands are sites that
help maintain widespread species of forest birds as ecologically
important predators on insects in the matrix forest of ponderosa
pine. To test this hypothesis, we are comparing reproductive
success and adult survival rates of plumbeous vireosn (photo) and
yellow-rumped warblers in small aspen stands to that in the
ponderosa pine matrix. We are also modeling the source-sink
relationships between patch and matrix habitats for these species.

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Cougar attacks on humans in the United States and Canada since 1890.
Every few years I update the record since
my 1991 paper that covered
101 years of attacks (1890-1990). The most recent update also speculates on the
meaning of near-attacks (aggressive head-on confrontations without physical
contact) and whether they should be a basis for killing a cougar. You can view
this slide presentation on eleventy-one years
of attacks (that, of course, is how hobbits refer to 111).
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