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Recent, Current, and Pending Research Projects

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Some projects, especially those without graduate students, are listed only on the Conservation Activities page.

GIS analysts Dan Majka, Jeff Jenness, and I have developed an ArcGIS toolbox (CorridorDesigner) and a toolbar of Corridor Evaluation Tools that allows anyone to design wildlife corridors using the procedures underlying our 16 Arizona designs. It’s free at corridordesign.org, complete with tutorial, pdfs of powerpoint presentations (we are working on Flash versions), and species models for some southwestern species.

Plague dynamics in prairie dog colonies (Megan Friggens PhD project, in collaboration with Dr Robert Parmenter of Valles Caldera National Preserve). Since plague first entered the US in 1900, the disease has decimated Gunnison prairie dog towns and is a factor that may lead to listing of the species under ESA. To test the hypotheses that plague outbreaks in Gunnison prairie dog colonies are driven by increased dispersal of small mammals, and that these dispersal events are density-dependent and driven by dry-wet climate cycles, we are studying the prevalence of plague and host-changing behavior of fleas, in relation to rodent population changes, climate, and habitat.

File:NSF Logo.jpgBird predation, forest insects, and growth of cottonwood (Bill Bridgeland PhD project). Our objectives are to (a) test the hypothesis that insectivorous birds increase the growth of cottonwood trees by reducing the numbers of phytophagous insects, (b) determine what factors influence the relationships among avian predators, insects, and tree growth . The project is motivated by surprising lack of empirical data on these issues. Appeals to conserve forest birds because they are important to forest health should be based on the documented role of birds in forest ecosystem processes, such as their potential role as insect predators and regulators of tree herbivory and growth. This research provides greater understanding of biotic interactions in forest ecosystems as well as addressing an important conservation and forest health issue for an important southwestern forest type. This project is generously supported by the National Science Foundation.

 

ESKIMO BLUE DAY from the Jefferson Airplane album Volunteers (1969). Music by Grace Slick, Lyrics by Paul Kantner & Grace Slick; Second verse by Paul Beier (2002)

Snow cuts loose from the frozen

Until it joins with the African sea

In moving it changes its cold and its name

The reason I come and go is the same

Animal game for me

You call it rain

But the human name

Doesn't mean shit to a tree

Birds fly through the forest

Eating millions of arthropods

“Without birds the bugs would soon kill the trees

That’s why we must conserve them please!”

But is this really true?

If the birds went away

What would the trees say?

Do birds mean shit to a tree?

Population genetics, occupancy modeling, and habitat modeling of grizzly bears in Montana (Tabitha Graves PhD project).

I am using genetic data to link habitat use and connectivity to animal abundance.  The Northern Divide Grizzly Bear (NDGB) Project was initiated to estimate the number of grizzly bears in the 8-million-acre Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) in northwestern Montana. We collected 33,000 hair samples in 2004 from hair snares and rub trees.  This yielded  genotypes for 545 individual grizzly bears, creating a  genetic spatial and temporal record of individual animals.  I am using these data to answer several questions: Why are there many bears in some parts of the ecosystem and few bears in others? Can we use the relatedness of individuals to identify places that are less permeable to bear movement? How can we include spatial autocorrelation in models of the number of bears in a local area? What is the best approach for incorporating multiple scales of habitat selection into models of the number of bears using an area?  How can we use multiple data sources (genetic, telemetry, sightings) to estimate the number of bears?  I will use a hierarchical Bayesian framework and simulations to model the way animal movement, habitat use, and sampling methods influence animal abundance in an area. This work is File:NSF Logo.jpgsupported by the National Science Foundation (Rigorous estimates of landscape resistance to gene flow; 2009-2011), an NSF IGERT fellowship (2007-2009), NAU School of Forestry, USGS, and partners of the NDGB Project. 

Modeling corridors for a changing climate

(Brian Brost MS project).

I am developing a new approach to design wildlife linkages more robust to climate change. Most corridor designs are based on current distribution of vegetation communities, which  will soon change due to climate change. My new method will use elevation, slope, aspect, and landform as surrogates for vegetation in linkage design. The rationale is that future vegetation communities will be determined by topography, temperature, precipitation, and soils. By maximizing continuity of elevation, slope, aspect, and landform elements, a linkage design should also maximize continuity of vegetation communities in a changing climate. For several complex landscapes in Arizona, I will compare my topographic linkage designs to existing focal-species designs based on current vegetation. This new approach can be used as an adjunct to current approaches to make linkage designs more robust to climate change. The approach may be most useful in much of the developing world - where digital elevation data are available but maps of vegetation lacking. This work is funded by the McIntire-Stennis program, Arizona Board of Forestry, and the US Forest Service Climate Change Initiative..

Impact of uncertainty on least-cost corridor analyses. Shawn Newell MS project. Least cost corridor analysis (LCCA) is an increasingly popular tool in planning wildland networks. For instance, the South Coast Missing Linkages project is using it to prioritize parcels for connectivity between 15 major pairs of wildlands in southern California.  LCCA produces a map predicting the least cost corridors for each of several focal species, and a combined map of a design that serves all species. Each map is a single estimate of the species LCC, that depends on the structure of the model and estimates of animal response to habitat factors. Our objectives are to estimate sensitivity of the predicted LCC for a species to uncertainty about the species’ habitat preferences and to different model structures. We will also determine if using multiple focal species produces a linkage design that is robust to uncertainty in the maps for the individual species.
The role of small aspen patches in the population dynamics of insectivorous birds in ponderosa pine forests (Jill Clifton PhD project). We think that aspen stands are sites that help maintain widespread species of forest birds as ecologically important predators on insects in the matrix forest of ponderosa pine. To test this hypothesis, we are comparing reproductive success and adult survival rates of plumbeous vireosn (photo) and yellow-rumped warblers in small aspen stands to that in the ponderosa pine matrix. We are also modeling the source-sink relationships between patch and matrix habitats for these species.

 


Cougar attacks on humans in the United States and Canada since 1890. Every few years I update the record since my 1991 paper that covered 101 years of attacks (1890-1990). The most recent update also speculates on the meaning of near-attacks (aggressive head-on confrontations without physical contact) and whether they should be a basis for killing a cougar. You can view this slide presentation on eleventy-one years of attacks (that, of course, is how hobbits refer to 111).